NCAAF · NCAA Football CPU Engine

Rice Owls at Fresno State Bulldogs

Configure matchup assumptions, then run a Monte Carlo simulation for projected scores and betting edges.

-13.5 Home spread ? Points added to the home team's margin for cover purposes. Negative means home is favored.
43.5 Total ? The sportsbook's posted over/under for combined points/goals/runs in the game.
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Last Week Intel

Auto-fill sliders from recent stats

Maps L7 team metrics to suggested slider values ? Sharp feature: reads last-week team stats from the database and suggests slider values before you run the sim. . Available on Sharp and Syndicate.

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Simulation controls

Full college football depth — same control set as NFL.

Core

Home offense ? Bump home scoring efficiency: drives, shot quality, or offensive play-calling edge.
0
-20 Neutral +20
Away offense ? Bump away scoring efficiency for the visitor.
0
-20 Neutral +20
Home defense ? Tighten home defense — suppresses opponent scoring in the model.
0
-20 Neutral +20
Away defense ? Tighten away defense against the home attack.
0
-20 Neutral +20
Home injury report ? Negative = key home players out; positive = healthier than expected.
0
-20 Neutral +5
Away injury report ? Injury impact on the road team — same scale as home.
0
-20 Neutral +5
Home field / crowd ? Home-field / ice / court advantage beyond base ratings (crowd, travel, altitude).
3
0 Neutral +10

Pro Upgrade

QB play, pass rush, pace, and weather.

Home QB play ? QB or primary creator form: hot hand vs slump (football/basketball contexts).
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Away QB play ? Visitor QB/playmaker adjustment.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Home pass rush ? Pass rush or defensive pressure on the opponent's passer.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Away pass rush ? Away pass rush vs home offense.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Game pace ? Game tempo — faster pace lifts totals and stat volume.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Weather / conditions ? Wind/rain/cold drag on passing and kicking — negative hurts offense.
0
-15 Neutral +5
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Sharp Upgrade

Red zone, explosives, turnover volatility.

Turnover chaos ? Turnover chaos: positive = more giveaways, wilder outcomes.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Home red zone ? Home efficiency inside the scoring zone (TDs vs FGs).
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Away red zone ? Away red-zone conversion edge.
0
-20 Neutral +20
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Home coaching ? In-game coaching / scheme edge for the home side.
0
-10 Neutral +10
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Away coaching ? Coaching edge for the visitor.
0
-10 Neutral +10
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Home explosive plays ? Big-play tendency: chunk gains spike variance and ceiling.
0
-10 Neutral +10
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Away explosive plays ? Visitor explosive-play rate.
0
-10 Neutral +10
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Plans